Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Commons Return
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.
Significant Barriers in the Selection Process
Several figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
